Model projections for household energy use in India

Energy use in developing countries is heterogeneous across households. Present day global energy models are mostly too aggregate to account for this heterogeneity. Here, a bottom-up model for residential energy use that starts from key dynamic concepts on energy use in developing countries is presented and applied to India. Energy use and fuel choice is determined for five end-use functions (cooking, water heating, space heating, lighting and appliances) and for five different income quintiles in rural and urban areas.

The paper specifically explores the consequences of different assumptions for income distribution and rural electrification on residential sector energy use and CO2 emissions, finding that results are clearly sensitive to variations in these parameters. As a result of population and economic growth, total Indian residential energy use is expected to increase by around 65–75% in 2050 compared to 2005, but residential carbon emissions may increase by up to 9–10 times the 2005 level. While a more equal income distribution and rural electrification enhance the transition to commercial fuels and reduce poverty, there is a trade-off in terms of higher CO2 emissions via increased electricity use.

Authors

PBL Authors
Bas van Ruijven Detlef van Vuuren Bert de Vries Morna Isaac Paul Lucas
Other authors
Jeroen P. van der Sluijs (Utrecht University)
P. Balachandra (Indian Institute of Science)

Specifications

Publication title
Model projections for household energy use in India
Publication date
4 October 2011
Publication type
Article
Publication language
English
Magazine
Energy Policy
Issue
Volume 39, Issue 12, December 2011, Pages 7747–7761
Product number
525