Multi-model comparison of the economic and energy implications for China and India in an international climate regime

This paper presents a modeling comparison on how stabilization of global climate change at about 2 °C above the pre-industrial level could affect economic and energy systems development in China and India. 

Seven General Equilibrium (CGE) and energy system models on either the global or national scale are soft-linked and harmonized with respect to population and economic assumptions. We simulate a climate regime, based on long-term convergence of per capita carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, starting from the emission pledges presented in the Copenhagen Accord to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and allowing full emissions trading between countries.

Under the climate regime, Indian emission allowances are allowed to grow more than the Chinese allowances, due to the per capita convergence rule and the higher population growth in India. Economic and energy implications not only differ among the two countries, but also across model types.

Decreased energy intensity is the most important abatement approach in the CGE models, while decreased carbon intensity is most important in the energy system models. The reduction in carbon intensity is mostly achieved through deployment of carbon capture and storage, renewable energy sources and nuclear energy. The economic impacts are generally higher in China than in India, due to higher 2010–2050 cumulative abatement in China and the fact that India can offset more of its abatement cost though international emission trading.

Authors

PBL Authors
Paul Lucas Michel den Elzen Detlef van Vuuren
Other authors
Daniel J. A. Johansson
Matthias Weitzel
Erik O. Ahlgren
A. B Bazaz
Wenying Chen
Joydeep Ghosh
Maria Grahn
Qiao-Mei Liang
Sonja Peterson
Basanta K. Pradhan
Bas J. van Ruijven
P. R. Shukla
Yi-Ming Wei

Specifications

Publication title
Multi-model comparison of the economic and energy implications for China and India in an international climate regime
Publication date
28 February 2014
Publication type
Article
Publication language
English
Magazine
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change
Issue
December 2015, Volume 20, Issue 8, pp 1335–1359
Product number
1391