Sensitivity analyses of the ESPON Climate framework, on the basis of the case study on flooding in the Netherlands
The ESPON Climate framework is a first attempt to develop a comprehensive methodology that integrates data and interrelations across a vast range of relevant fields in order to assess a pan-European cross-sectorial climate change vulnerability. Thereby the ESPON Climate framework could play an important role in the EU's intended shift towards an adaptive climate policy. However, uncertainties about future developments as well as uncertainties caused by choices made in the framework's construction can limit its applicability. In this context, we analysed the sensitivity on the basis of a case study on flooding in the Netherlands.
The consequence of the use of simple flood models
The output of the framework was shown to be highly sensitive to the choice of flood model. The basis of the framework development was the use of pan-European databases and models in order to avoid spatial differences due to variations in local information. The drawback of this approach is that generally more crude assumptions and simple models have to be used. A spatial comparison with calculated potential impacts, based on a more sophisticated Dutch flood modelling approach, showed a rather weak correlation which became even worse for the classes containing the estimated highest impacts.
For more information you can contact Joost Knoop.
Authors
Specifications
- Publication title
- Sensitivity Analyses of the ESPON Climate Framework, on the Basis of the Case Study on Flooding in the Netherlands.
- Publication date
- 9 August 2013
- Publication type
- Publication
- Magazine
- Chapter 14 in Book 'European Climate Vulnerabilities and Adaptation: A Spatial Planning Perspective'; editors Philipp Schmidt-Thomé and Stefan Greiving
- Product number
- 823
