Spread in climate policy scenarios unravelled

As expected, the climate target explains most of the spread in greenhouse gas emissions, total and sectoral fossil fuel use, total renewable energy, and total carbon capture and storage in electricity generation. On the other hand, model differences drive variation of most other scenario outcomes. For example, in individual renewable and carbon capture and storage technologies, and energy in demand sectors. This reflects intrinsic uncertainties about long-term developments and the range of possible mitigation strategies. Only a few scenario outcomes, such as hydrogen use, are driven by other scenario assumptions, reflecting the need for more scenario differentiation.

This attribution analysis distinguishes areas of consensus as well as strong model dependency, providing a crucial step in correctly interpreting scenario results for robust decision-making.