The effect of different historical emissions datasets on emission targets of the sectoral mitigation approach Triptych

The Triptych approach differentiates emission reduction targets under a future international climate agreement based on technological considerations at the sector level. The advantage of such a sectoral approach is that it allows for discussions on worldwide competing sectors and on the role of emission reduction contributions of developing countries. The disadvantage is that the reduction targets are influenced by countries' historical emissions data at the sectoral level, which are, especially for developing countries, uncertain. A major drawback of the analyses of the Triptych approach is that they lack a sensitivity analysis of the effect of using different historical emissions datasets on the allocation of emission allowances. The present article addresses this by analysing and comparing the differences in future emissions allowances under the Triptych approach, using two different historical emissions datasets.