The role of negative CO2 emissions for reaching 2 °C-insights from integrated assessment modelling
Limiting climate change to 2 °C with a high probability requires reducing cumulative emissions to about 1600 Gigatonne CO2 over the 2000–2100 period. This requires unprecedented rates of decarbonization even in the short-run. The availability of the option of net negative emissions, such as bio-energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) or reforestation/afforestation, allows to delay some of these emission reductions. In the paper, the demand and potential for negative emissions in particular from BECCS is assessed.
Both stylized calculations and model runs show that without the possibility of negative emissions, pathways meeting the 2 °C target with high probability need almost immediate emission reductions or simply become infeasible. The potential for negative emissions is uncertain. We show that negative emissions from BECCS are probably limited to around 0 to 10 Gigatonne (Gt) CO2/year in 2050 and 0 to 20 GtCO2/year in 2100. Estimates on the potential of afforestation options are in the order of 0–4 GtCO2/year. Given the importance and the uncertainty concerning BECCS, we stress the importance of near-term assessments of its availability as today’s decisions has important consequences for climate change mitigation in the long run.
Authors
Specifications
- Publication title
- The role of negative CO2 emissions for reaching 2 °C-insights from integrated assessment modelling
- Publication date
- 1 May 2013
- Publication type
- Publication
- Magazine
- Climatic Change
- Product number
- 1163
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