Using large ensembles of climate change mitigation scenarios for robust insights

As they gain new users, climate change mitigation scenarios are playing an increasing role in transitions to net zero. One promising practice is the analysis of scenario ensembles. Here we argue that this practice has the potential to bring new and more robust insights compared with the use of single scenarios. However, several important aspects have to be addressed. We identify key methodological challenges and the existing methods and applications that have been or can be used to address these challenges within a three-step approach: (1) pre-processing the ensemble; (2) selecting a few scenarios or analysing the full ensemble; and (3) providing users with efficient access to the information.

Authors

PBL Authors
Detlef van Vuuren
Other authors
Céline Guivarch
Thomas Le Gallic
Nico Bauer
Panagiotis Fragkos
Daniel Huppmann
Marc Jaxa-Rozen
Ilkka Keppo
Elmar Kriegler
Tamás Krisztin
Giacomo Marangoni
Steve Pye
Keywan Riahi
Roberto Schaeffer
Massimo Tavoni
Evelina Trutnevyte
Fabian Wagner

Specifications

Publication title
Using large ensembles of climate change mitigation scenarios for robust insights
Publication date
9 May 2022
Publication type
Article
Publication language
English
Magazine
Nature Climate Change
Issue
volume 12, pages428–435 (2022)
Product number
4955