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Towards universal electricity access in Sub-Saharan Africa

With the adoption of the UN Sustainable Development Goals, the global community has committed to achieving universal electricity access by 2030. This study analyses the technology and investment…

A physically-based model of long-term food demand

Reducing hunger while staying within planetary boundaries of pollution, land use and fresh water use is one of the most urgent sustainable development goals. It is imperative to understand future food…

Spatiotemporal dynamics of soil phosphorus and crop uptake in global cropland during the 20th century

Phosphorus (P) plays a vital role in global crop production and food security. In this study, we investigate the changes in soil P pool inventories calibrated from historical countrywide crop P uptake…

Assessment of US city reduction commitments, from a country perspective

In the United States, 14 of the 25 largest cities have committed themselves to achieving greenhouse gas reduction targets. This study shows that, as a group, the 25 largest US cities are more…

Comparing projections of industrial energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions in long-term energy models

The industry sector is a major energy consumer and greenhouse gas (GHG) emitter. Effective climate change mitigation strategies will require a significant reduction of industrial emissions. To better…

Representation of variable renewable energy sources in TIMER, an aggregated energy system simulation model

The power system is expected to play an important role in climate change mitigation. Variable renewable energy (VRE) sources, such as wind and solar power, are currently showing rapid growth rates in…

BioScore 2.0, a species-by-species model to assess anthropogenic impacts on terrestrial biodiversity in Europe

The BioScore 2.0 model analyses impacts of human-induced pressures on European terrestrial biodiversity. The model can be used for scenario analysis and the assessment of policy options. This report…

Valuation of CO2 emissions in CBA: implications of the scenario study Welfare, Prosperity and the Human Environment

The scenario study Welfare, Prosperity and the Human Environment (WLO) forecasts long-term developments on four topics, climate being one of them. The study’s climate scenarios have been constructed…
Publication

Assessing uncertainties in global cropland futures using a conditional probabilistic modelling framework

We present a modelling framework to simulate probabilistic futures of global cropland areas that are conditional on the SSP (shared socio-economic pathway) scenarios. Simulations are based on the…

Global and regional abatement costs of INDCs and of enhanced action to levels well below 2 °C and 1.5 °C

Under the Paris Agreement, countries agreed to keep the increase in global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. Current climate action plans would deliver half the…